Wary farmers watch weak snowpack

Last summer's drought lingered all the way to January before Skagit County officially finally emerged out of it. But that does not mean this year's water situation is secure.

Snowpack in the Cascade Mountains remained well below normal based on Feb. 4 data. The most recent data of snow water equivalent from the Natural Resource Conservation Service shows the North Puget Sound Basin at 50% of the average, based on the period 1991-2020. By contrast, a year ago, the snowpack registered 78%. Nick Bond, Washington's climatologist, was quoted in the Seattle Times saying of the state's snowpack, "It's worse than I expected."

The forecasts on Drought.gov, a program of the multiagency National Integrated Drought Information System, expect below-normal precipitation to produce another drought.

Despite the bad news, La Conn+er farmer Dave Hedlin is not paying too close attention yet. "Whatever it is, I'll have to deal with it," he said.

At Hedlin Family Farm, they prepare for potential dry years by ensuring their irrigation operation is ready to go if it is needed.

Farmers are always watchful, but years that are extra dry or wet demand even more. "Preparedness is up from normal years," said Hedlin.

Local potato farmer Wylie Thulen agreed. "We're paying attention to it," he said.

If the water supply remains low, it can curtail supplemental irrigation in the valley.

Water helps keep soil temperatures cool, said Thulen. In the late summer, when droughts are usually the most severe, water is also necessary for strong root growth. Fields with poor access to water will see lower yields, something Thulen said could result in the loss of the millions of dollars valley-wide.

"It's not a small ripple effect," said Thulen.

Kai Ottesen manages the fresh market at Hedlin Family Farm. He notes that so far water has not been a limiting factor in its operation, though it is a concern. They already use drip irrigation on most crops for the most efficient use of water. Ottesen focuses more about saltwater intrusion than the snowpack condition, given the farm's location near the mouth of the North Fork Skagit River.

Long-term climate models predict wetter winters with less snowpack in the Northwest, a trend that this year seems to be following.

Currently, SNOTEL sites that monitor snowpack, precipitation and soil conditions in the mountains show a region in deficit. The sites through the Skagit River watershed in Skagit and Whatcom counties show below-average numbers, some less than half the average. Soil conditions in the North Cascades may be worse than water. Data from NASA show exceptionally dry soil in the region. When soil is dry beneath the snowpack, it absorbs snowmelt first in the spring. This reduces and slows water getting into streams.

The eastern 38.3% of Skagit County was classified as abnormally dry by the U.S. Drought Monitor Feb. 20, indicating the region is going into or coming out of drought. It is the lowest of five classifications rising to four levels of drought.

The Skagit River is now running below average, according to monitoring stations upriver.

Thulen said this is obvious from looking at the river. He expects a potentially tough summer.

"We're already not using much and sometimes that's not enough," said Thulen. "We'll slug our way through like we do every year."

As for lowland precipitation, the La Conner area, zip code 98257, is not expected to have a drought develop over the next three months, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reported Feb. 15.

U.S. Drought Monitor is a joint effort of the National Drought Mitigation Center, U.S. Department of Agriculture and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.