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Whether it was wet and cold weather alone, or COVID-fatigue, poor decision making or these factors combined, 158 Skagit County residents tested positive for COVID-19 in October, a 74% increase over cases recorded in September based on Skagit Public Health records. The 31 people who tested positive Nov. 1-2 is a scary total to contemplate: 35.6 cases were averaged per week in October. This week is only half over.

These are raw numbers. The Washington Department of Health calculated 57.3 cases per 100,000 population over a two week period ending Nov. 1 in Skagit County. About 238 people tested per 100,000 residents in the last week, about 5% above the statewide average. Larger testing rates are good.

In the Governor’s Safe Start reopening plan, the County remains in a moderate risk state, based on these data. Snohomish County was reporting over 75 cases per 100,000 residents in late October, Skagit Public Health Director Jennifer Johnson reported to the County Board of Health at its Oct. 28 meeting.

Skagit County residents are infecting each other by their insistence on gathering socially, at events or in traveling to visit. These account for 40% of cases in the county, Johnson said. But one-in-five cases cannot be traced to the source because individuals decline to provide full information to contact tracers. Staff then have difficulty in determining where someone was exposed Johnson told the Board.

Johnson provided an update on the public testing site at Skagit Valley College, telling the Board that the seven month effort is the longest in the state. The 4,000 October tests given are almost twice September’s totals.

The public testing site reported 102 positive tests in October, 65% of all new cases. The low was 18 the week ending Oct. 2; 28 was the highest during the week ending Oct. 23, when 933 tests were given. There were 23 positive tests last week, when 878 people were tested, the lowest weekly October testing total.

County data shows six people hospitalized since Oct. 20, bringing to 106 the number of people with hospital stays since March 14. Two people died between Oct. 28-Nov. 2, raising the total to 25 deaths since the first March 23

The 1,296 total cases is a doubling since mid-July.

In September 91 cases were recorded, with double digit cases only once and three days of no positive tests. In October, as many as 22 cases were recorded in one day and over 10 cases were reported on four days.

At least one person living in the 98257 zip code tested positive Nov. 1. The total number of cases remains below 30 for the area.

In his report, County Public Health Officer Dr. Howard Leibrand warned the Board of a third wave of the virus, saying “this is not the time to let any guards down from what we are doing, but time to bolster behavior. It is really hard to tell what is happening over the next short period of time.” The 31 cases the first two days this month bear him out.

He reported a surge in Idaho, which has five times the infection rate as Washington and Oregon and warned not to travel to Idaho. He stressed personal behavior as the key to controlling the spread and said again “masks are a very effective way to stop the illness.” Mask wearing at the 95% level in the population will dramatically alter the transmission rate of the virus, he said.