The first COVID-19 case in Skagit County was confirmed Feb. 21. Significant growth in COVID-19 cases were documented February 21-March 18, with cases doubling every four days, on average. The Skagit Valley Chorale practice was March 10. By April 1, 45 of the 56 attendees were diagnosed with COVID-19 or were ill with the symptoms. At least three have been hospitalized and two are dead. The Chorale was a classic cluster.

That four week period the growth was exponential, that is it doubled in size on a regular basis.

If that exponential growth rate of doubling every four days had continued. There would have been some 1,000 COVID-19 cases in Skagit County by April 6, over six times the 179 cases that Skagit County Department of Health has documented.

Instead, the data shows a significant decrease in the amount of days it takes to double the cases. The 12 day period March 18-29 was the next doubling period, with cases increasing from 73 to 150.

Take a close look at March 31 going forward. In the next 13 days, through April 13, 45 cases were confirmed. The curve is “flattened,” the rate of growth has slowed considerably. It is visible here.

The significant decrease in total cases is possibly due to social distancing and stay home regulations which reduces the overall density of people.

No other group contamination has apparently occurred.

Another possibility for the major contributor in reducing COVID-19 cases is the increased understanding of this terrible virus. Washing hands, not touching your face and disinfecting your surroundings have all helped to reduce and decrease the growth of COVIOD-19 virus cases in Skagit County.

The Skagit County Department of Public Health reports cases daily to the state health department and both departments post the data on their websites.